Mind the gap: What if Venezuelan ex-pats do go back home?

por Carlos Solis-Tejada

imagesHugo Chavez is dead and for many reasons, whether you are a “Chavista” or not, the importance of this event is not a minor issue. Although the real possibilities of a dismissal of Chavismo are a matter of debate it would be interesting to understand the impact of a change of regime would have in other countries.  More interesting in my view would be if Chavismo proves to be rather than a personality cult, a deeply rooted political culture and system that could either take years of transition to change into something different like in post Franco Spain (or post-communist Eastern Europe) or perhaps it could evolve and further develop into something more like post Mao China.

The outcome of events going on in Venezuela might be a matter of concern to its neighbours ….greater than they might imagine.  Very few seem to be making themselves the million dollar question…Could real estate markets plummet in Miami or in Panama City if middle class Venezuelans moved back home or stopped leaving Venezuela?

Of course such a question is highly speculative and for some even a non-question as the probabilities of a such a massive return (or a stop to the exodus) could be considered rather slim…but what if?  This is not a small question specially for places like Panama where the impact of Venezuelan immigrants has been greater than what their numbers might indicate  (24,000 in a country of 3 million inhabitants) and perhaps than in any other country. This community is unique in being composed mostly of people of professional or business backgrounds with high levels of educational attainment which contributes greatly to social and economic development wherever they settle.

The economic input of Venezuelans either settling or just securing their money in Panamanian banks or business ventures is such that they constitute the third source of Foreign Direct Investments in the country. It could also be safe to say that Panama’s real estate boom quickly recovered its pace after the shock of the financial crisis slowed down the influx of North American and European baby-boomers partially thanks to the influx of Venezuelan home buyers and investors some even buying entire new developments.

It would also be interesting to know the impact of a return of the 70,000 Venezuelans living in Miami where their presence can be felt in the city, a slight reminiscence to the impact Cuban immigrants had in Miami after the Castro’s hijacked the Cuban Revolution. This is more so considering their contribution to an economy affected by the US Financial Crisis.

But there is no reason to worry, a recent survey showed that more than 95% of Venezuelans resident in the Miami surveyed said they had no intention to return even with a change of regime. After all, many have uprooted themselves from Venezuela and rebuilt their lives in the US, perhaps the same could be assumed of those who moved to Panama or elsewhere. Many migrants were young couples whose children have grown up to be like any local kid in their host country. Many have established prosperous businesses and careers therefore the human drama of starting all over again is just too great to bear especially when there is nothing waiting for them in the short term. But the question will always remain…what if? I would greatly appreciate your opinions bash me, trash me if you want but please leave your comments below

Carlos Solis-Tejada, holds an MSc in Urbanisation & Development from the London School of Economics and Political Science and is currently based in London.